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Understanding Inflation and the Implications for Monetary Policy
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Understanding Inflation and the Implications for Monetary Policy: A Phillips Curve Retrospective

Jeff Fuhrer, Yolanda K. Kodrzycki, Jane Sneddon Little, and Giovanni P. Olivei

Abstract

In 1958, economist A. W. Phillips published an article describing what he observed to be the inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment; subsequently, the “Phillips curve” became a central concept in macroeconomic analysis and policymaking. But today’s Phillips curve is not the same as the original one from fifty years ago. The economy, our understanding of price setting behavior, the determinants of inflation, and the role of monetary policy have evolved significantly since then. This book reexamines the theoretical and empirical validity of the Phillips curve in its more recent ... More

Keywords: inverse relationship, inflation, unemployment, Phillips curve, macroeconomic analysis, policymaking, economy, price setting behavior, monetary policy

Bibliographic Information

Print publication date: 2009 Print ISBN-13: 9780262013635
Published to MIT Press Scholarship Online: August 2013 DOI:10.7551/mitpress/9780262013635.001.0001

Authors

Affiliations are at time of print publication.

Jeff Fuhrer, editor

Yolanda K. Kodrzycki, editor

Jane Sneddon Little, editor

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Contents

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1 The Phillips Curve in Historical Context

The Phillips Curve in Historical Context

Jeff Fuhrer, Yolanda K. Kodrzycki, Jane Sneddon Little, and Giovanni P. Olivei

2 Fifty Years of the Phillips Curve: A Dialog on What We Have Learned

Fifty Years of the Phillips Curve: A Dialog on What We Have Learned

Robert M. Solow, John B. Taylor, and N. Gregory Mankiw

3 Forecasting Inflation

Phillips Curve Inflation Forecasts

James H. Stock, and Mark W. Watson

4 The Labor Market and the Phillips Curve

5 Inflation Expectations

6 Evidence on Price Determination

7 Is the Phillips Curve Vertical in the Long Run?

8 Lessons for Central Bankers: A Panel Discussion

9 The Phillips Curve Going Forward: What We Still Need to Learn