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The Economics of ConflictTheory and Empirical Evidence$
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Karl Wärneryd

Print publication date: 2014

Print ISBN-13: 9780262026895

Published to MIT Press Scholarship Online: September 2014

DOI: 10.7551/mitpress/9780262026895.001.0001

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The Probability of Military Rule in Africa, 1970 to 2007

The Probability of Military Rule in Africa, 1970 to 2007

Chapter:
(p.105) 5 The Probability of Military Rule in Africa, 1970 to 2007
Source:
The Economics of Conflict
Author(s):

Raul Caruso

Jacopo Costa

Roberto Ricciuti

Publisher:
The MIT Press
DOI:10.7551/mitpress/9780262026895.003.0006

This chapter relates income, ethnic fractionalization, and external threat levels to the probability of military coups in Africa. It shows that per capita income has a negative effect on the probability of military rule, offering support for the “modernization” theory of democracy. Fractionalization also lowers the probability of military rule, while external threats have a lagged positive effect.

Keywords:   military coups, coups d’état, per capital income, modernization, democracy, fractionalization

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