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Progress and Confusion
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Progress and Confusion: The State of Macroeconomic Policy

Olivier Blanchard, Raghuram G. Rajan, Kenneth S. Rogoff, and Lawrence H. Summers

Abstract

In April of 2015, the International Monetary Fund gathered leading academic economists and policymakers, to discuss the shape of future macroeconomic policy. This book presents their combined insights. The chapters of the book address the policy debate in a number of areas: (i) whether the global economy has entered a “new normal” of low growth, negative real interest rates, and deflationary pressures; (ii) whether new financial regulations have helped stem systemic risk; (iii) the effectiveness of macro prudential tools; (iv) the future of monetary policy and whether it will revert to pre-cri ... More

Keywords: macroeconomic policy, rethinking, new normal, financial regulation, macroprudential policy, monetary policy, fiscal policy, capital flows, international monetary system

Bibliographic Information

Print publication date: 2016 Print ISBN-13: 9780262034623
Published to MIT Press Scholarship Online: January 2017 DOI:10.7551/mitpress/9780262034623.001.0001

Authors

Affiliations are at time of print publication.

Olivier Blanchard, editor

Raghuram G. Rajan, editor

Kenneth S. Rogoff, editor

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Contents

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Front Matter

Title Pages

1 A Road Map to “Progress and Confusion”

Olivier Blanchard and Rafael Portillo

The “New Normal”

2 Debt Supercycle, Not Secular Stagnation

Kenneth Rogoff

3 Rethinking Secular Stagnation after Seventeen Months

Lawrence H. Summers

Systemic Risk and Financial Regulation

4 A Note from the Session on Systemic Risk and Financial Regulation

Paul A. Volcker

5 A Comparative Analysis of Financial Sector Health in the United States, Europe, and Asia

Viral V. Acharya

6 Rethinking Financial Regulation: How Confusion Has Prevented Progress

Anat R. Admati

7 Systemic Risk and Financial Regulation: Where Do We Stand?

Philipp Hildebrand

8 Shadow Banking as a Source of Systemic Risk

Robert E. Rubin

Macroprudential Policies: Gathering Evidence

9 Macroprudential Policy Regimes: Definition and Institutional Implications

Paul Tucker

10 Macroprudential Tools, Their Limits, and Their Connection with Monetary Policy

Hyun Song Shin

11 A Simple Cost-Benefit Analysis of Using Monetary Policy for Financial Stability Purposes

Lars E. O. Svensson

Monetary Policy in the Future

12 Introduction to the Monetary Policy Section

José Viñals

13 Monetary Policy in the Future

Ben Bernanke

14 A Monetary Policy for the Future

John B. Taylor

15 The Credit Surface and Monetary Policy

John Geanakoplos

16 Remarks on the Future of Monetary Policy

Gill Marcus

Fiscal Policy in the Future

17 Fiscal Policy for the Twenty-First Century: Testing the Limits of the Tax State?

Vitor Gaspar

18 The Future of Fiscal Policy

Martin Feldstein

19 What Future for Rules-Based Fiscal Policy?

Marco Buti*

20 On the Proper Size of the Public Sector and the Level of Public Debt in the Twenty-First Century

J. Bradford DeLong

Capital Flows, Exchange Rate Management, and Capital Controls

21 Floating Exchange Rates, Self-Oriented Policies, and Limits to Economic Integration

Maurice Obstfeld

22 Some Lessons of the Global Financial Crisis from an EME and a Brazilian Perspective

Luiz Awazu Pereira da Silva

23 Capital Inflows, Exchange Rate Management, and Capital Controls

Agustín Carstens

The International Monetary and Financial System

24 The International Monetary and Financial System: Eliminating the Blind Spot

Jaime Caruana

25 Prospects and Challenges for Financial and Macroeconomic Policy Coordination

Zeti Akhtar Aziz

26 Global Safe Asset Shortage: The Role of Central Banks

Ricardo J. Caballero

27 Going Bust for Growth

Raghuram Rajan

Conclusion

28 Rethinking Macro Policy: Progress or Confusion?

Olivier Blanchard

End Matter

List of Contributors

Index