Targeting Civilians to Win? Assessing the Military Effectiveness of Civilian Victimization in Interstate War
Targeting Civilians to Win? Assessing the Military Effectiveness of Civilian Victimization in Interstate War
This chapter attempts to assess the impact of civilian victimization on the achievement of wartime objectives. War outcome, measured using a trichotomous indicator, is considered an imperfect measure for evaluating the effectiveness of civilian victimization. This chapter presents cross tabulation of civilian targeting and interstate war outcomes from 1816 to 2003, ordinal logit estimates of civilian victimization and interstate war outcomes, and the effects of civilian targeting on probabilities of victory, of a draw, and of defeat. Wars of territorial annexation cause ethnic cleansing, whereas wars of attrition last much longer than other wars. Civilian victimization was not relevant to victory or defeat in cases such as the Boxer Rebellion, ethnic cleansing in the First Balkan War, Turkey in World War I, the Greco-Turkish War, the Soviet Union in World War II, and Armenia–Azerbaijan, but in some other cases it may have contributed to the victory.
Keywords: wartime, civilian victimization, war outcomes, interstate war, territorial annexation
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