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MetareasoningThinking about Thinking$
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Michael T. Cox and Anita Raja

Print publication date: 2011

Print ISBN-13: 9780262014809

Published to MIT Press Scholarship Online: August 2013

DOI: 10.7551/mitpress/9780262014809.001.0001

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Weighted Prediction Divergence for Metareasoning

Weighted Prediction Divergence for Metareasoning

(p.249) 16 Weighted Prediction Divergence for Metareasoning

Brett J. Borghetti

Maria Gini

The MIT Press

This chapter presents a metareasoning system that relies on a prediction performance measurement, and proposes a novel model performance measurement that fulfills this need: weighted prediction divergence. It begins by proposing a metareasoning system coupled with a robust measurement of model-prediction performance to yield a powerful new method of model selection for an agent. After reviewing some of the existing methods used for performance measurement, it presents a new method for characterizing model prediction performance. It then introduces one target domain for the empirical testing of this prediction-performance measurement. Next, it discusses empirical results using this method and concludes with a description of future work required to realize the overall metareasoning system.

Keywords:   metareasoning system, prediction performance measurement, model performance, weighted prediction divergence

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