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Better Doctors, Better Patients, Better DecisionsEnvisioning Health Care 2020$
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Gerd Gigerenzer and J.A. Muir Gray

Print publication date: 2011

Print ISBN-13: 9780262016032

Published to MIT Press Scholarship Online: May 2016

DOI: 10.7551/mitpress/9780262016032.001.0001

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PRINTED FROM MIT PRESS SCHOLARSHIP ONLINE (www.mitpress.universitypressscholarship.com). (c) Copyright The MIT Press, 2022. All Rights Reserved. An individual user may print out a PDF of a single chapter of a monograph in MITSO for personal use.date: 28 May 2022

The Future of Diagnostics

The Future of Diagnostics

From Optimizing to Satisficing

(p.281) 17 The Future of Diagnostics
Better Doctors, Better Patients, Better Decisions

Henry Brighton

The MIT Press

In health care, our observations are shaped by interactions between complex biological and social systems. Practitioners seek diagnostic instruments that are both predictive and simple enough to use in their everyday decision making. Must we, as a result, seek a trade-off between the usability of a diagnostic instrument and its ability to make accurate predictions? This chapter argues that sound statistical reasons and evidence support the idea that the uncertainty underlying many problems in health care can often be better addressed with simple, easy-to-use diagnostic instruments. Put simply, satisficing methods which ignore information are not only easier to use, they can also predict with greater accuracy than more complex optimization methods.

Keywords:   Strüngmann Forum Reports, diagnostic instruments, diagnostic systems, optimizing, satisficing, statistical models, uncertainty

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