The Brazilian Confidence Game
The Brazilian Confidence Game
The intricate links between elections and financial markets are analysed in this chapter, focusing on the Brazilian presidential elections of 2002, 2006, and 2010 to assess the reaction of investors to elections covering a decade. While OECD countries, including Greece and Hungary, faced major financial disruption in the aftermath of presidential elections and government changes in 2010, nations including Brazil had smooth election processes in the same year and experienced more muted and less disruptive reactions from the financial markets. To analyse the factors influencing this, the chapter explains how aspects of the confidence game have changed, and how as the case of Brazil shows, political and financial cycles can decouple.
Keywords: confidence game, presidential elections, Brazil, Greece, financial markets, investors, political cycle, financial cycle
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