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The Economics of ConflictTheory and Empirical Evidence$
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Karl Wärneryd

Print publication date: 2014

Print ISBN-13: 9780262026895

Published to MIT Press Scholarship Online: September 2014

DOI: 10.7551/mitpress/9780262026895.001.0001

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The Probability of Military Rule in Africa, 1970 to 2007

The Probability of Military Rule in Africa, 1970 to 2007

(p.105) 5 The Probability of Military Rule in Africa, 1970 to 2007
The Economics of Conflict

Raul Caruso

Jacopo Costa

Roberto Ricciuti

The MIT Press

This chapter relates income, ethnic fractionalization, and external threat levels to the probability of military coups in Africa. It shows that per capita income has a negative effect on the probability of military rule, offering support for the “modernization” theory of democracy. Fractionalization also lowers the probability of military rule, while external threats have a lagged positive effect.

Keywords:   military coups, coups d’état, per capital income, modernization, democracy, fractionalization

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