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Empirical Model Discovery and Theory EvaluationAutomatic Selection Methods in Econometrics$
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David F. Hendry and Jurgen A. Doornik

Print publication date: 2014

Print ISBN-13: 9780262028356

Published to MIT Press Scholarship Online: January 2015

DOI: 10.7551/mitpress/9780262028356.001.0001

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(p.17) 2 Discovery
Empirical Model Discovery and Theory Evaluation

David F. Hendry

The MIT Press

This chapter begins by discussing some of the many ways in which discoveries have been made in physical and biological sciences. There seem to be seven common aspects of such discoveries and their subsequent evaluations. Despite important differences, discovery and evaluation in economics are similar to those of other sciences, and the same seven common aspects can be discerned. The complexity of macroeconomic data intrinsically involves empirical discovery with theory evaluation, as well as requiring rigorous evaluation of selected models to ascertain their viability. Directly fitting a theory-specified model limits the potential for discovery. Retrospectively, covert discovery has been common in empirical econometrics.

Keywords:   Scientific discovery, empirical discovery, theory evaluation

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