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Energy, Economic Growth, and Geopolitical FuturesEight Long-Range Scenarios$
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Evan Hillebrand and Stacy Closson

Print publication date: 2015

Print ISBN-13: 9780262028899

Published to MIT Press Scholarship Online: September 2015

DOI: 10.7551/mitpress/9780262028899.001.0001

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Catching Up to America

Catching Up to America

(p.27) 2 Catching Up to America
Energy, Economic Growth, and Geopolitical Futures

Evan Hillebrand

Stacy Closson

The MIT Press

This chapter and the next seven offer scenarios. The first scenario is marked by low energy prices, strong growth, and global harmony. The OECD suffers a decade of low growth in the 2010s while Asian growth continues to surge. Rapid expansion of oil and gas production coupled with slow OECD growth results in subdued energy prices. The OECD economy eventually rights itself with a burst of technological innovation, some of which significantly reduces energy consumption. By 2030 China has become by far the largest economy, with high per capita income, advanced technology, a powerful military, and the political will to be the new hegemon. However, China does not assert itself aggressively beyond its Asian region, and does not try to fundamentally alter the rules of the global economy. The United Nations takes on a growing role in global affairs.

Keywords:   Low Energy Prices, Strong Growth, Global Harmony, Chinese Hegemony, United Nations

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