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Energy, Economic Growth, and Geopolitical FuturesEight Long-Range Scenarios$
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Evan Hillebrand and Stacy Closson

Print publication date: 2015

Print ISBN-13: 9780262028899

Published to MIT Press Scholarship Online: September 2015

DOI: 10.7551/mitpress/9780262028899.001.0001

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Peaceful Power Transition

Peaceful Power Transition

(p.59) 4 Peaceful Power Transition
Energy, Economic Growth, and Geopolitical Futures

Evan Hillebrand

Stacy Closson

The MIT Press

This third scenario is marked by high energy prices, strong growth, and global harmony. In this scenario the world economy recovers from the stagnation in 2008-2012, pushing up energy prices sharply. Countries are assumed to follow policies that increase property rights, improve the rule of law, and increase trade openness. China continues to have very high growth, but finds that accommodating to the existing global regime makes more sense for it economically and politically than challenging the existing order. The United States and the European Union remain strong and prosperous and find a way to get along peacefully with a rising China. Buoyed by peace and prosperity among the big three economies of the United States, European Union, and China, many countries across several regions continue on a gradual path toward convergence with the OECD. The BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India and China) are joined by second echelon of states – the STICKs – comprised of South Africa, Turkey, Indonesia, Colombia, and Kazakhstan. Energy prices remain high due to growing demand from strengthening economies. Competition for water sources from a growing agricultural sector also keep energy prices high.

Keywords:   High Energy Prices, Strong Growth, Global Harmony, BRICS, STICKs, Chinese Hegemony

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