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Energy, Economic Growth, and Geopolitical FuturesEight Long-Range Scenarios$
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Evan Hillebrand and Stacy Closson

Print publication date: 2015

Print ISBN-13: 9780262028899

Published to MIT Press Scholarship Online: September 2015

DOI: 10.7551/mitpress/9780262028899.001.0001

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Summary and Conclusions

Summary and Conclusions

(p.167) 10 Summary and Conclusions
Energy, Economic Growth, and Geopolitical Futures

Evan Hillebrand

Stacy Closson

The MIT Press

This final chapter discusses what we have learned from generating the scenarios and how the three variables affect one another in certain circumstances. Analysis is provided on which aspects of the scenarios are more plausible than others. Each scenario is assigned a degree of low, medium, and high probability. Missing elements of scenarios are also discussed. The final part provides insights and deductions we drew from conducting this exercise and where more analysis is needed. Readers are left to contemplate how certain policy choices made by key actors in the international community push us in more or less plausible directions.

Keywords:   Lessons Learned, Probabilities, Follow-on Research

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