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Progress and ConfusionThe State of Macroeconomic Policy$
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Olivier Blanchard, Raghuram G. Rajan, Kenneth S. Rogoff, and Lawrence H. Summers

Print publication date: 2016

Print ISBN-13: 9780262034623

Published to MIT Press Scholarship Online: January 2017

DOI: 10.7551/mitpress/9780262034623.001.0001

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Debt Supercycle, Not Secular Stagnation

Debt Supercycle, Not Secular Stagnation

(p.19) 2 Debt Supercycle, Not Secular Stagnation
Progress and Confusion

Kenneth Rogoff

The MIT Press

This chapter argues that weak post-crisis growth reflects the post-financial-crisis phase of a debt supercycle. Excessive credit expansion led to the global financial crisis, and the subsequent deleveraging has been a drag on growth. As these headwinds subside, expected growth trends might prove higher than simple extrapolations of recent performance.

Keywords:   debt supercyle, secular stagnation, global financial crisis, interest rates, credit surface

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